...From the Lavery Team September Newsletter

Home Sales Pace Up

Sales of existing homes in the USA went up by 3.09% in July, to 5 million homes. We have not hit an annual pace of 5 million homes since last year. Unfortunately, this month's figures are well below last July (2007), by -13.19%.

The glaring inconsistencies were that sales were up in the West but the values were down remarkably. Also, though sales were up overall, so was inventory. We'll talk more about these things later.

Sales Pace by Region

For month-to-month comparisons, the sales pace was up everywhere, except the South, which was down only -.54%. Sales were up in the Midwest by 0.90%, in the Northeast by 5.88%, and in the West by 9.71%.

Year-to-year presents a different picture. Nationwide, the sales pace was down -13.19%. In the South, sales were slower by -18.14%, -17.04% in the Midwest, and -11.76% in the Northeast. Sales were actually up in the West, by 0.89%.

This measure tracks units - condominiums, co-ops, and single-family homes. "Sales pace" means is that the National Association of Realtors calculates how many homes sold, makes adjustments for seasonal factors like weather and school, vacations, then calculates how many homes would sell in a year at that given pace.

Next Report

August sales pace figures released at the very end of September.

The median average is the "midpoint" sales price. Half the homes sold above that price and half below.

Home Prices Fall Again

Nationally, the median average sales price fell compared to last year, down by -7.09%, with the new median average sales price of a home at $212,400. The Midwest showed an actual increase of value again, by 1.04%, followed by declines in all other regions: South by -3.5%, Northeast by -4.91%, and the West by a whopping -22.21%. The Northeast actually passed the West in median sales price.

We compare values to the same period a year ago. We do not use month-to-month comparisons because there are sometimes huge fluctuations in the size of houses that sell in different seasons. Larger houses sell during the summer when it is more convenient for families to move.

Inventory Up

It would take 11.2 months to sell all the existing homes currently available on the market at the current sales pace, and there are almost 175,000 more homes on the market than last month. There are 4.669 million homes listed for sale. We're selling about five million a year.

We measure inventory in two ways. "How many homes are available for sale?" and "How many months would it take to sell the total number of homes available for sale right now, at the current sales pace?"

When the sales pace declines, inventory measured in months will increase, even if the same number of homes is for sale.